Title On the influence of temporal change on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps
Author Meusburger, K.; Alewell, C.
Author Affil Meusburger, K., Universität Basel, Institut für Umweltgeowissenschaften, Basel, Switzerland
Source Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 9(4), p.1495-1507, . Publisher: Copernicus GmbH on behalf of the European Geophysical Society, Katlenburg- Lindau, Germany. ISSN: 1561- 8633
Publication Date 2009
Notes In English. Accessed in Sept., 2010; abstract: doi:10.5194/nhess-9-1495-2009. 54 refs. GeoRef Acc. No: 309768
Index Terms Alpine landscapes; precipitation (meteorology); landslides; mapping; mass movements (geology); mathematical models; rain; slope stability; snow; statistical analysis; time factor; Switzerland--Uri; alpine environment; atmospheric precipitation; causes; Central Europe; climate effects; elevation; Europe; geologic hazards; land cover; mass movements; multivariate analysis; natural hazards; outcrops; probability; regression analysis; Switzerland; terrestrial environment; Uri Switzerland; Urseren Valley
Abstract The consideration of non-stationary landslide causal factors in statistical landslide susceptibility assessments is still problematic. The latter may lead to erroneous model predictions, especially in times of dramatic environmental change. In this case study in the Central Swiss Alps, we aim to evaluate the effect of dynamic change of landslide causal factors on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps. Logistic regression models were produced for two points in time, 1959 and 2000. Both models could correctly classify ›70% of the independent spatial validation dataset. By subtracting the 1959 susceptibility map from the 2000 susceptibility map a deviation susceptibility map was obtained. Our interpretation was that these susceptibility deviations indicate the effect of the change of dynamic causal factors on the landslide probability. The deviation map explained 85% of new landslides occurring after 2000. We believe it to be a suitable tool to add a time element to the susceptibility map pointing to areas with changing susceptibility due to recently changing environmental conditions.
URL http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/1495/2009/nhess-9-1495-2009.pdf
Publication Type journal article
Record ID 65006344