Title Quantitative assessment of Southern Hemisphere ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations
Author Karpechko, A.Y.; Gillett, N.P.; Hassler, B.; Rosenlof, K.H.; Rozanov, E.
Author Affil Karpechko, A.Y., University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom. Other: Environment Canada, Canada; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand; NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory; University of Colorado; Eidgenössiche Technische Hochschule Zürich, Switzerland; Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, Switzerland
Source Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(3), p.1385-1400, . Publisher: Copernicus, Katlenburg-Lindau, International. ISSN: 1680- 7316
Publication Date 2010
Notes In English. Published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions: 17 September 2009, http://www.atmos-chem-phys- discuss.net/9/19351/2009/acpd-9-19351- 2009.html ; accessed in May, 2011. 42 refs. Ant. Acc. No: 91458. GeoRef Acc. No: 310100
Index Terms atmospheric circulation; climate; correlation; geochemistry; ozone; polar regions; simulation; environment simulation; statistical analysis; stratosphere; temperature; Antarctica; polar regions; Southern Hemisphere; atmospheric transport; boundary conditions; chemistry climate models; dynamics; errors; general circulation models; halogens; multi-model ensemble average; quantitative analysis; recovery; sensitivity analysis; spatial distribution; time series analysis; transport; troposphere; uncertainty
Abstract Stratospheric ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere is expected to drive pronounced trends in atmospheric temperature and circulation from the stratosphere to the troposphere in the 21st century; therefore ozone changes need to be accounted for in future climate simulations. Many climate models do not have interactive ozone chemistry and rely on prescribed ozone fields, which may be obtained from coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations. However CCMs vary widely in their predictions of ozone evolution, complicating the selection of ozone boundary conditions for future climate simulations. In order to assess which models might be expected to better simulate future ozone evolution, and thus provide more realistic ozone boundary conditions, we assess the ability of twelve CCMs to simulate observed ozone climatology and trends and rank the models according to their errors averaged across the individual diagnostics chosen. According to our analysis no one model performs better than the others in all the diagnostics; however, combining errors in individual diagnostics into one metric of model performance allows us to objectively rank the models. The multi-model average shows better overall agreement with the observations than any individual model. Based on this analysis we conclude that the multi-model average ozone projection presents the best estimate of future ozone evolution and recommend it for use as a boundary condition in future climate simulations. Our results also demonstrate a sensitivity of the analysis to the choice of reference data set for vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic, highlighting the constraints that large observational uncertainty imposes on such model verification.
URL http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1385/2010/acp-10-1385-2010.pdf
Publication Type journal article
Record ID 65006753