Title A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials
Author Frey, H.; Haeberli, W.; Linsbauer, A.; Huggel, C.; Paul, F.
Author Affil Frey, H., Universität Zürich, Geographisches Institut, Zurich, Switzerland
Source Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), 10(2), p.339-352, . Publisher: Copernicus GmbH on behalf of the European Geophysical Society, Katlenburg- Lindau, Germany. ISSN: 1561- 8633
Publication Date 2010
Notes In English. Accessed in Nov., 2010; abstract: doi:10.5194/nhess-10-339-2010. 61 refs. GeoRef Acc. No: 309749
Index Terms ablation; climatic change; crevasses; erosion; flooding; glacial erosion; glacial lakes; glaciers; glacier ablation; global change; global warming; lakes; mass movements (geology); slope stability; thermokarst; topography; Switzerland--Bernese Alps; Switzerland--Graubunden; Switzerland--Valais; Aletsch Glacier; Alps; Bernese Alps; Bernina Mountains; Bernina region; Central Alps; Central Europe; climate change; debris flows; depressions; digital terrain models; Europe; floods; geologic hazards; geophysical methods; glacial features; Graubunden Switzerland; jokulhlaups; Jungfrau; mass movements; natural hazards; risk management; Switzerland; Trift Glacier; Valais Switzerland
Abstract In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.
URL http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/10/339/2010/nhess-10-339-2010.pdf
Publication Type journal article
Record ID 65006363