Title Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios
Author Corbett, J.J.; Lack, D.A.; Winebrake, J.J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J.A.; Gold, M.
Author Affil Corbett, J.J., University of Delaware, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmosphere, Newark, DE. Other: NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory; Rochester Institute of Technology; Transport Canada, Canada; GIS Consulting; Canadian Coast Guard, Canada
Source Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10(19), p.9689-9704, . Publisher: Copernicus, Katlenburg-Lindau, International. ISSN: 1680- 7316
Publication Date 2010
Notes In English. Published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions: 19 April 2010, http://www.atmos-chem-phys- discuss.net/10/10271/2010/acpd-10-10271-2010. html; accessed in May, 2011. 53 refs. GeoRef Acc. No: 310394
Index Terms albedo; climatic change; global change; global warming; hydrocarbons; ice; legislation; pollution; ships; transportation; Arctic Ocean; aliphatic hydrocarbons; alkanes; atmospheric transport; black carbon; carbon; carbon dioxide; carbon monoxide; climate change; climate forcing; greenhouse gases; methane; mitigation; organic carbon; organic compounds; particulate materials; pollutants; regulations; sea ice; seasonal variations; shipping; sulfur dioxide; tankers; transport
Abstract This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.
URL http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9689/2010/acp-10-9689-2010.pdf
Publication Type journal article
Record ID 65007200