Title Using ecosystem monitoring data to detect impacts
Author Hill, S.L.; Forcada, J.; Trathan, P.N.; Waluda, C.M.
Author Affil Hill, S.L., Natural Environment Research Council, British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Source CCAMLR Science, Vol.17, p.197-212. Publisher: Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), International. ISSN: 1023- 4063
Publication Date 2010
Notes In English GeoRef Acc. No: 309657
Index Terms Atlantic Ocean--South Atlantic; Atlantic Ocean Islands--South Georgia; Southern Ocean; Arctocephalus gazella; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean Islands; Carnivora; Chordata; conservation; ecosystems; environmental effects; environmental management; Eutheria; habitat; human activity; Mammalia; monitoring; Otariidae; population dynamics; Scotia Sea Islands; South Atlantic; South Georgia; Tetrapoda; Theria; Vertebrata
Abstract Discusses range of methods using monitoring data with no control sites for inferring impacts of activities such as fishing. Methods assess either expected probability of observed value in unimpacted system, or frequency of values below fixed reference point, latter approach allowing inference criteria based on changes in frequency rather than by reference to critical probability. All methods would have provided sustained indication of significant decline in Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) pup production at South Georgia from early 1990s within a few years of its onset, though fixed reference point method could have provided this sustained indication from onset. Simulation of all methods suggests that total probability of error (false positives and false negatives combined) is lowest with fixed reference point methods. Probabilities of Type I and Type II error can be evaluated analytically for these methods, which facilitates decision-making based on attitudes to risk.
Publication Type journal article
Record ID 91399