Title Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone
Author Austin, J.; Struthers, H.; Scinocca, J.; Plummer, D.A.; Akiyoshi, H.; Baumgaertner, A.J.G.; Bekki, S.; Bodeker, G.E.; Braesicke, P.; Brühl, C.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M.P.; Cugnet, D.; Dameris, M.; Dhomse, S.; Frith, S.; Garny, H.; Gettelman, A.; Hardiman, S.C.; Jöckel, P.; Kinnison, D.; Kubin, A.; Lamarque, J.F.; Langematz, U.; Mancini, E.; Marchand, M.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Nakamura, T.; Nielsen, J.E.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J.; Rozanov, E.; Shepherd, T.G.; Shibata, K.; Smale, D.; Teyssèdre, H.; Yamashita, Y.
Author Affil Austin, J., NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ. Other: University of Stockholm, Sweden; University of Victoria, Canada; Environment Canada, Canada; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; Max-Planck- Institut für Chemie, Germany; Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales, France; Bodeker Scientific, New Zealand; Cambridge University, United Kingdom; Met Office, United Kingdom; University of Leeds, United Kingdom; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany; NASA, Goddard Space Flight Center; Science Systems and Applications; National Center for Atmospheric Research; Freie Universität Berlin, Germany; University of L'Aquila, Italy; Meteo-France, France; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand; World Radiation Center, Switzerland; Eidgenössische Technische Hochscule Zürich, Switzerland; University of Toronto, Canada; Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Source Journal of Geophysical Research, 115(D), Citation D00M11. Publisher: American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, United States. ISSN: 0148-0227
Publication Date 2010
Notes In English. Part of special issue on Modeling of chemistry and climate (MC2), edited by Austin, J.. 52 refs. GeoRef Acc. No: 308736. CRREL Acc. No: 65005453
Index Terms chemical composition; climate; clouds (meteorology); ozone; simulation; environment simulation; stratosphere; Antarctica; atmosphere; clouds; greenhouse gases; halogens; Montreal Protocol; numerical models; ozone hole; seasonal variations; size
Abstract Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.
URL http://hdl.handle.net/10.1029/2009JD013577
Publication Type journal article
Record ID 91055